Caribbean Projections Portal

Selections

Select a site by clicking on a pin on the map:

Select projections to display:

First projection:

Second projection:

Four different projections are available at each site, each one illustrating one of the following scenarios:

Action is taken to reduce greenhouse gases: global temperatures are 1.5° above industrial levels by 2100
Action is taken to reduce greenhouse gases: global temperatures are 2.0° above industrial levels by 2100
Greenhouse gas emissions follow RCP 4.5 - emissions peak around 2040, then decline
Greenhouse gas emissions follow RCP 8.5 - little effort is made to control emissions

The estimates given are heights in metres above the mean sea level in a baseline period of 1986-2005.

These projections are only projections of the mean sea level, so we have included available tide gauge data to illustrate the range of natural variability around that. Note, however, that these are monthly averages, and don't contain tides, storm surges, or other events that cause short term changes in sea level. Maximum heights will be considerably higher.

These projections are taken from Jackson and Jevrejeva (2016), and Jackson et. al (2018). The projections are calculated using future greenhouse gas concentration estimates from the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), which are described on the IPCC's website.

Projections

The plot shows the estimated mean sea level at the site selected for the one or two projections chosen. If two projections are selected, they are displayed in different colours.

The central solid line displays the best estimate of future mean sea level, and the two envelopes of broken lines display the likely range (66% chance the actual value lies within this range, shown by inner dashed lines), and the extremely likely range (95% chance the actual value lies within this range, shown by the outer dotted lines).

We have included the monthly average tide gauge data (black line) to demonstrate the range of natural variability in the system, although this doesn't include variability at shorter timescales (tides, storm surges, etc.). Note that for some sites this data is based on automatically quality controlled data, so shouldn't be used in any study of sea level - it's just included for illustrative purposes.

Monthly Mean Sea Level from Tide Gauge Data
Projected mean sea level - First Projection
Projected mean sea level - Second Projection

Projected Sea Level Table

The data files available represent the projected mean sea level for the chosen site and projection at the given year. Values are metres above the mean sea level in the baseline period of 1986-2005.

The files are comma-separated value text files (.csv)

Each file contains one line for each projection year, and data representing the five lines displayed in the plot above. Technically, columns represent specific percentile values of the confidence interval of the projected height. Practically, this means the columns represent the following:

time: The year for projected heights in this row
p5: The lowest, dotted line on the plot, representing the lower bound of the extremely likely range (95% chance the actual value lies within this range)
p17: The lower, dashed line on the plot, representing the lower bound of the likely range (66% chance the actual value lies within this range)
p50: The 50th percentile, or median value, representing by the solid line. This is the best estimate of future sea level for this projection.
p83: The upper, dashed line on the plot, representing the upper bound of the likely range
p95: The highest, dotted line on the plot, representing the upper bound of the extremely likely range: a worst case scenario.

Projected sea levels, metres
Heights are given above 1986-2005 baseline
Year	Best estimate	66% confidence interval	95% confidence interval (upper bound worst case scenario)

Caribbean Sea Level Projections Portal

Selections

Select a site by clicking on a pin on the map:

Sea Level Projections Used

Projections

Sea Level Projection Plots

Projected Sea Level Table

Projection File Format