Windward Islands Sea Level Projections

Here we present our attempts to estimate the scale of future sea level rise in the Windward Islands up to 2100. The estimates given are heights in metres above the mean sea level in a baseline period of 1986-2005.

Four different projections are available at each site, each one illustrating one of the following scenarios:

1. Action is taken to reduce greenhouse gases: global temperatures are 1.5° above industrial levels by 2100
2. Action is taken to reduce greenhouse gases: global temperatures are 2.0° above industrial levels by 2100
3. Greenhouse gas emissions follow RCP 4.5 - emissions peak around 2040, then decline
4. Greenhouse gas emissions follow RCP 8.5 - little effort is made to control emissions

The central line displays the best estimate of future mean sea level, and the two envelopes display the likely range (66% chance the actual value lies within this range), and the extremely likely range (95% chance the actual value lies within this range).

Further details on how the projections were obtained are available at the bottom of the page

Further details

These projections are taken from Jackson and Jevrejeva (2016), and Jackson et. al (2018). The projections are calculated using future greenhouse gas concentration estimates from the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), which are described on the IPCC's website.

The tide gauge data presented is monthly data calculated from the automatically quality controlled data, and is included to show the monthly variability not included in the projections.